NBA: Early Season Betting Observations
by Mike Neri
In all sports, some teams don’t change much from season to season, while other teams can change significantly. Changes occur because of obvious things, such as new players or coaches, and more subtle things, such as injuries, strategic shifts, or certain young players blossoming and getting better.
I bring this up because oddsmakers have to look at how a team is playing early in the season AND what they did last season. Miami, for instance, is the defending champs, but they aren’t the same team. They were a club loaded with many veteran players last season and now those aging players are even older. NBA players in their 30s can see their skills decline rapidly as it’s such a grueling, fast paced game. You have to be in tip-top shape to play hoops. Football kickers and baseball pitchers and pinch hitters, for instance, can play into their late 30s and even their 40s and be effective. That’s not the case in the NBA. Miami is a good example. They are not very good, despite being the defending champs, and they’ve been overvalued by oddsmakers at home with a poor 3-6 SU/ATS mark.
Other changes are more subtle. Take defense. The top teams currently in field goal shooting defense allowed are Houston, Orlando, Minnesota, Charlotte and New Jersey. The Rockets and Nets were strong last season and are good again because the coaches and personnel are the same. But the other three were not good last season and are remarkably improved.
In Minnesota, the T-Wolves are playing good defense for coach Dwayne Casey, allowing .436% shooting by opponents. Why is that important for bettors? Because Minnesota is 11-6 under the total. In fact, the top three defensive teams on that list (Houston, Orlando, Minnesota) are a combined 35-19 under the total. You can turn a lot of profit going 35-19 against the spread!
It’s also worth keeping track of when teams with similar stats like that play each other. This week Houston and Minnesota met up. There was a stretch in the fourth quarter in which the two teams, over about five minutes, each made only one of nine shots. Houston arrived as the NBA's stingiest club, allowing 87.8 points per game while the Wolves ranked third at 92.9.
"We're a pretty good defensive team, too.” Kevin Garnett beamed afterward. "I know they're a good team. That doesn't discount what we do. We take a lot of pride. We view ourselves as hyenas vs. having one or two lions.” And that meeting went under the total in a 90-84 Minnesota win. The T-Wolves are improved at the betting window, too, because of that attention to defense, starting 11-6 ATS.
Another team that was simply awful on defense last season but is paying for more attention to it this year is Atlanta. The Hawks are 10th in the NBA holding opponents to .447% shooting. That has helped them become more competitive at 7-4 against the number as a dog.
On the flip side, let’s look at some real bad defensive teams. The 76ers are a mess and coach Mo Cheeks doesn’t appear to have any way to fix it. Allen Iverson can score, of course, but the team is in the bottom three in defense allowing .481% shooting by opponents. That would explain why they have lost 9 of 10 games and are on a 1-4 ATS run. The Sonics were awful last season because they lacked big bodies in the paint on the defensive glass. They are similar this season and dead last in defense allowing a ridiculous .485% shooting by opponents!
Seattle is on a 2-4 SU/ATS run the last two weeks. In fact, Philly and Seattle are both ranked in the bottom four in team rebounding, a trend that will be difficult to fix given their (lack of) low post personnel. Pat Riley is fond of saying, “No rebounds, no rings!” In the case of the Sonics and 76ers, few rebounds will continue to mean few wins
YouWinNow.com
by Mike Neri
In all sports, some teams don’t change much from season to season, while other teams can change significantly. Changes occur because of obvious things, such as new players or coaches, and more subtle things, such as injuries, strategic shifts, or certain young players blossoming and getting better.
I bring this up because oddsmakers have to look at how a team is playing early in the season AND what they did last season. Miami, for instance, is the defending champs, but they aren’t the same team. They were a club loaded with many veteran players last season and now those aging players are even older. NBA players in their 30s can see their skills decline rapidly as it’s such a grueling, fast paced game. You have to be in tip-top shape to play hoops. Football kickers and baseball pitchers and pinch hitters, for instance, can play into their late 30s and even their 40s and be effective. That’s not the case in the NBA. Miami is a good example. They are not very good, despite being the defending champs, and they’ve been overvalued by oddsmakers at home with a poor 3-6 SU/ATS mark.
Other changes are more subtle. Take defense. The top teams currently in field goal shooting defense allowed are Houston, Orlando, Minnesota, Charlotte and New Jersey. The Rockets and Nets were strong last season and are good again because the coaches and personnel are the same. But the other three were not good last season and are remarkably improved.
In Minnesota, the T-Wolves are playing good defense for coach Dwayne Casey, allowing .436% shooting by opponents. Why is that important for bettors? Because Minnesota is 11-6 under the total. In fact, the top three defensive teams on that list (Houston, Orlando, Minnesota) are a combined 35-19 under the total. You can turn a lot of profit going 35-19 against the spread!
It’s also worth keeping track of when teams with similar stats like that play each other. This week Houston and Minnesota met up. There was a stretch in the fourth quarter in which the two teams, over about five minutes, each made only one of nine shots. Houston arrived as the NBA's stingiest club, allowing 87.8 points per game while the Wolves ranked third at 92.9.
"We're a pretty good defensive team, too.” Kevin Garnett beamed afterward. "I know they're a good team. That doesn't discount what we do. We take a lot of pride. We view ourselves as hyenas vs. having one or two lions.” And that meeting went under the total in a 90-84 Minnesota win. The T-Wolves are improved at the betting window, too, because of that attention to defense, starting 11-6 ATS.
Another team that was simply awful on defense last season but is paying for more attention to it this year is Atlanta. The Hawks are 10th in the NBA holding opponents to .447% shooting. That has helped them become more competitive at 7-4 against the number as a dog.
On the flip side, let’s look at some real bad defensive teams. The 76ers are a mess and coach Mo Cheeks doesn’t appear to have any way to fix it. Allen Iverson can score, of course, but the team is in the bottom three in defense allowing .481% shooting by opponents. That would explain why they have lost 9 of 10 games and are on a 1-4 ATS run. The Sonics were awful last season because they lacked big bodies in the paint on the defensive glass. They are similar this season and dead last in defense allowing a ridiculous .485% shooting by opponents!
Seattle is on a 2-4 SU/ATS run the last two weeks. In fact, Philly and Seattle are both ranked in the bottom four in team rebounding, a trend that will be difficult to fix given their (lack of) low post personnel. Pat Riley is fond of saying, “No rebounds, no rings!” In the case of the Sonics and 76ers, few rebounds will continue to mean few wins
YouWinNow.com