NFL Best ATS Teams

NFL Betting (teams that beat the spread in 2007)

All sports bettors know, real money can only be made on the hidden value. The hidden value though, is not called "hidden" for nothing: it is extremely illusive. A classic instance of hidden value is when a road favorite plays a home underdog.

Statistics show, that the betting public is extremely fond of road favs, for one reason or another, more fond than any statistical data would ever justify. Cold hard data hints to the fact that betting on a reasonable home underdog is where the hidden value might be. Home dogs are known to have pulled out some serious upsets SU, and ATS they're rather formidable. The home-field advantage is often underestimated, but whole articles could be written on that phenomenon alone.

Anyway, when a home underdog plays a road favorite, hidden value usually surfaces. It works like this:

Let's say New England plays the Bengals in Cincinnati. Naturally, the Pats are a - let's say - 15 point favorite in this game. Now, if they beat Cincinnati with more than 15 points (which they just did, during week 4) they'll cover the spread and the betting public will go home happy. On the other hand, if statistical data comes through, and the Bengals manage to beat the spread instead (that is, they lose at a less than 15 points difference - which proved to be an impossible task last weekend) there's a big upset, and everyone who's bet on the underdog cashes in big.

Why does the hidden value appear in the first-place? The bookmakers (the entity that gives out the lines) need to have their matches balanced. Balanced - in their case - means that they need to have an equal number of bettors on both sides of the game. That would be the ideal scenario for them, because that way, they could make money risk-free. They'd take the money from the losers, pay the winners out, and keep the vig for themselves. Unfortunately, no match-up ever gets equal numbers of bettors on both its sides. That means the bookie has to do something to balance the situation: he'll try to lure people onto the less-bet-on side, by moving the lines. If there are tons of squares betting on the fav, he'll move his lines, so that the underdog looks more attractive. That's the hidden value right there. That little plus that is used to lure bettors.

Sometimes, the bookie is so certain that the underdog will pull an ATS upset, that he will go up against the squares himself. That means he will no longer try to lure anyone through, with the hidden value, rather, he'll cover the bets with his own money. That way he can cash in big.

Anyway, whether it's a losing or a winning team we're talking about here, the ability to cover the spread or not, under specific circumstances matters the most. The New England Patriots have managed to cover the spread every single time so far in the 2007 season. They are 4-0-0 SU, and 4-0-0 ATS, so I'd say, definitely, there's a team that covers its spreads time and time again. They've pulled this stunt not against some sissy teams but against some of the best opposition out there (the Jets, the Chargers). No wonder they start off on a -16,5 against the Browns, next week. The real value in this game could be if the Browns actually managed to win ATS.

Other big spread-covering teams of 2007 are the Steelers (3-0-0 SU, and 3-0-0 ATS in their first 3 games, dropped one to the Cardinals last week, though), the Dallas Cowboys (they swept the first 4 games SU and ATS) and the more or less surprising Green Bay Packers (4-0-0 both SU and ATS in their first 4)

The other undefeated team so far is the Indianapolis Colts, 4-0-0 so far, but a rather unsightly 2-2-0 ATS.

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