Where's the value in NBA betting?
If you're a gambler, and you aim to be a professional one someday, you should really choose something that is skill based. At luck-based games, the house will kick your can all over the place, thanks to the built-in edge it enjoys. Sure, you can win on roulette too, but that's only the short term variation. In the long-run, you don't stand a chance. If you decide to find yourself a nice skill-based gambling genre and make money there, and if you happen not to be too fond of online poker, sports betting is the next best thing.
Before we start investigating where you're likely to make money in NBA betting, let's see what you should avoid. After all, money not lost is just as sweet as money won, and even if it ain't so for some, it'll still give you a great push in your overall long-term sports betting endeavor.
NBA future bets. There's something you shouldn't sink your greedy little sports betting fangs into, even if it does look tempting at first sight. The NBA is not the NFL, and there are but a few teams with real chances for the championship or for division titles. These teams will usually get really crappy odds. Given the fact that the NBA season is a real marathon (lasts from November till June) there's really no reason for you to have your money tied up for that long, unless you get double digit odds.
These future bets seem extremely attractive to squares, because they figure they stand a really good chance at pinpointing next season's winner, and thus the whole thing is nothing but a long term lock.
People who know where to look for value however, don't think much of these future bets. Even if they knew they'd win for sure, they probably wouldn't have their betting bankroll tied up for that long, with those odds.
These guys know that the only way to make some constant cash out of betting on NBA matches, is to do what the bookie sometimes does: go up against the mess of squares. Some call it hidden value (probably because it stays hidden from the masses), some call it betting against squares, at any rate, it is just about the only fool-proof way to generate a constant stream of cash in this business. The bookie has the juice working for him too, a luxury which you, the player just cannot afford, so you are forced to rely solely on the hidden value.
Bonus value like this can often be found in games involving a home underdog. For some reason, people just love favorites. This is especially true in the NBA, where favorites are usually bigger favorites than in any other sport. The vast mass of squares will obviously bet on the favorite in such matchups, while completely ignoring the home-court advantage. This will force bookmakers to adjust their lines, sometimes in a pretty wild manner. Remember that their primary goal is to keep a match as well balanced as possible. In order to be able to collect their vig undisturbed, they have to have about the same number of bettors betting both sides of a matchup. Whenever the balance swings dangerously one way or the other, they adjust their lines. This is their way of convincing bettors to bet on the other side as well. They sometimes do this against their better judgment, being forced into it by the action of the masses. That is when hidden value surfaces, and that is when sharps usually strike.
A home underdog (especially a very motivated one, fighting to clinch the last playoff berth) is more likely to pull an upset than most squares would ever believe.
Hidden value can also be found in unpopular games. Bookmakers focus on games which draw in the most bettors, those that are barely bet on, are not so carefully handicapped. It's always possible that there were some slips in the way the bookie set his lines. True sharps won't let an opportunity like that elude them.
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