Second Half Football Wagering
by Mike Neri
Creative prop and halftime wagering is becoming more and
more popular. Just as important, it can offer excellent
wagering value. For instance, there were prop wagers offered
on QB Tom Brady to throw over or under 1.5 TD passes Monday
night against the Vikings. This was a good spot for the
over, because even though New England has been a run-first
team this season, the Vikings have the No. 1 run defense
in the NFL. If the Pats were going to score, it was reasonable
to assume it would be via Brady’s arm rather than
trying to run at the No. 1 run defense. Brady had two TD
passes in the first half!
Another type of wagering is first and second half bets.
Here’s an old betting angle that still works in the
right spots: Look at second halves to go under the total
if the home team has a big lead, usually 17 points or more.
Most coaches lean toward the conservative side with their
play calling and game plans. The intent is to get a lead,
then run the ball and get off the field fast with a win.
Playing it safe means running the football, which keeps the
clock moving.
A fast-moving clock limits the chances for injuries. No
coach wants to run the hurry-up offense with a 24-0 lead,
then watch a couple of receivers come down with injuries.
It doesn’t make a lot of sense. Also, coaches have
a tendency to start thinking about next week’s game.
Let’s not show too much with our offensive playbook,
let’s just get out of here with a win.
As a result, many games can be low scoring in the second
half, particularly if the home team has a big lead. There
was no better example than the Chicago Bears Sunday. Chicago
tortured the Cardinals with a 41-0 first half lead! They
didn’t score a point in the second half, while Arizona
scored 10. That second half sailed under the total easily.
There was no need for the Bears to open up the offense in
the second half with a 41-0 lead. Rather, the game plan was
simple – no mistakes, go to the running game, play
the field position battle and use one of its strengths – defense – to
keep the lead and ice the win.
Naturally, it helps to have the home team with a big lead,
and that team is capable of running the football well, playing
good defense, or both. Weather conditions, too, are beginning
to play a part in handicapping as we slip into November,
with cold and wind becoming a factor. Teams with big halftime
leads in cold, windy conditions are even more likely to run
the football and get out as fast as possible.
Even scheduling is worth looking at. No. 18 Boston College
had a 24-0 halftime lead at home on Buffalo last Saturday,
then the team totaled just 17 points in the second half.
This happens more often in the NFL, especially with conservative
coaches who have reliable running games and above-average
defenses. Teams that currently fit this model, if they at
home with a big first half lead, would be the Ravens, Patriots,
Bears, Dolphins, Chargers, Broncos, and Jaguars. Yes, we
all look for games and point spreads to beat, but don’t
ignore halftime wagering, either, because there are all kinds
of methods to build your betting bankroll.
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